Eye on the Ball

Colorado Rockies (Ubaldo Jimenez 12-1, 1.16 ERA) v. Minnesota Twins (Fransisco Liriano 6-3, 2.90 ERA)

As bloggers, we try to not always pick our Eye on the Ball entries solely on the pitching matchups but this one was impossible to ignore. According to ESPN's MLB Cy Young Predictor, Ubaldo sits atop the NL as the most likely to receive the award if it was given out tonight (Adam Wainwright coming in a not-so-close second) and the Frisco Kid is listed as 9th in the AL behind the likes of David Price, Phil Hughes and Andy Pettitte.

These two 26-year-old Dominicans will bring energy and most likely a sellout crowd to Target Field for the afternoon game. In order for the Rockies to win, Ubaldo is going to need to go out and pitch every way as similar as he has throughout the season. His last start was in the rain-soaked, cold, windy game against Toronto earned him yet another victory but anyone could tell that his delivery was off. He oftentimes struggled with his control and gave up 5 walks in 6.0 innings pitched. However, even with his 3 earned runs, he still helped the fading Colorado team pick up another 'w' and keep division leading Dodgers on the horizon.

Liriano is coming off of a terrific outing when he fanned 11 batters against Tim Hudson and the Braves. Liriano started the season in terrific fashion when he allowed 3 earned runs in 29 innings pitched (all 3 earned runs came in his season debut in a 6 inning performance against the White Sox). He then had a terrible month of May when he watched his ERA quickly climb from 1.50 to 3.29 in a matter of 6 starts. However, he looks to be back on track in June posting two solid outings against the Braves and A's (combined 15 IP, 2 ERs, 2 BBs, 21 Ks).

So, we have two aces squaring off. But what about the bats? The Twinkies have already won the series by taking the first 2 games but with the Detroit Tigers lurking not far behind, they need to take advantage of this opportunity and perhaps the series' first lefty will be the broom. However, these teams are so offensively similar that there doesn't seem to be an advantage. The Rockies have fared excellent against both left and right handed starters and while the Twins tend to hit better against lefties, that hasn't seemed to effect them in the least during the first two games of the series.

Here are a few offensive statistics that demonstrate how close these teams are:

• Minnesota ranks 12th in runs scored, the Rockies sit in 16th but only a mere 11 total runs behind
• Rockies are 10 HRs ahead of the Twins, however, that's at Coors Field in Denver
  
• Colorado and Minnesota share the same SLG% at .414

Prediction: Minnesota Twins (4-3)

While I would not put any money or even a small favor as a wager for this game, we believe that Colorado's performance last night will most likely carry over this afternoon. The Rockies could not handle Scott Baker, who 2-hit them just last night in a 2-1 victory, and the road only gets more difficult when Liriano takes the mound.

Of course I am not forgetting the spotless diamond known as Ubaldo Jiminez but maybe, just maybe, he is slowly approaching planet earth. He has earned 5 runs in his last 13 innings pitched, something that has not happened this season. I am not suggesting that he is going to turn into any regular Joe because his stuff remains filthy. But perhaps there is more separation between him and Tim Keefe than some of us have thought.

If the rain holds off, we should be in store for a terrific 9 innings of baseball. Both of these pitchers are a joy to watch and both offenses have the ability to score runs. But we don't expect too many runs to be scored tonight.